The  Council,  in  developing  its  guidelines,  will  consider  all  relevant  matters.   These will include the cost-effectiveness of particular sentencing options.  As one facet of this, the Council will be expected to forecast the prison population impact of its guidelines. Our proposed parole changes are predicted to increase the average time served by prisoners from 62 percent of their sentence to more than 80 percent.  We have said in  our  report  that,  on  average,  sentences  imposed  by  judges  would  have  to  be about 25 percent shorter as a result of the parole changes, if the length of time actually served was to be the same.  I will say that again – a 25 percent reduction, on  average,  if  the  length  of  time  served  was  to  remain  the  same.    It  will  be important  that  the  public  understand  that  a  reduction  of  this  sort  would  not necessarily mean a reduction in the actual punishment, since the amount of time being served by the prisoner might be exactly the same.  If there is to be truth in sentencing,  the  sentence  that  the  judge  imposes  in  court  must  correspond  more closely to the actual reality of punishment.  Of course, whether such a reduction is appropriate,  and  whether  sentence  lengths  for  some  offending  might  alter  more than  others,  will  be  matters  for  the  Council  to  determine  when  it  drafts  its guidelines.    As  with  all  other  aspects  of  guidelines,  the  Council  will  make  that determination in the light of public submissions.    All of these changes will increase public confidence that they can contribute to the development of sentencing policy, and that the sentences that are imposed will in fact be served.    C:\Documents and Settings\TMcGlennon\Desktop\SG&PR\EI Launch GP Speech.doc